Facts, not Feelings

Joe Huffman has been a source of inspiration today. First he links to a very interesting piece out of Massachusetts, then his Quote of the Day prompts me to post a reply. Blogger Mikeb30200 quoting Violence Policy Center statistics says:

The Violence Policy Center published the latest statistics which prove what many people already believed, that more guns means more gun deaths. In fact, I've always found it surprising that some people deny this obvious truth.

(My emphasis.) Well, I just had to respond to that. Apparently Reasoned Discourse™ hasn't broken out there yet, so I think my comment will post, but before I hit "Publish" over there, I thought I'd do it here first:

Oh, hell, I'll give it a shot.

Please check this Bureau of Justice Statistic page of homicide rates in the U.S. from 1950 to 2005.

Please note that, after peaking in 1991, the homicide rate in the U.S. began a steep decline until it leveled off in 1999 at a rate not seen since the mid-1960's. Yet each and every year approximately three million new long guns and one million (or more) new handguns are purchased by American citizens.

Thus your assertion that "more guns means more gun deaths" is mathematically refuted. From 1991 through 2005 at a minimum fifty million new firearms ended up in private hands (at a guess, an increase of something like 25% over those held in 1991) yet homicide declined from a rate of 9.8/100,000 population to 5.6/100,000, or 43%.

Further, the corollary that fewer guns must equal fewer gun deaths is refuted by the example of Massachusetts. To paraphrase, their 1998 Gun Control Act has resulted in a decrease of licensed gun owners from "1,500,000 to 220,000, an 85 percent drop," however, "Based on incidents per 100,000, gun-related homicides are up 68 percent".

So why do "some people deny this obvious truth", the "obvious truth" that "more guns means more gun deaths"?

Because we understand numbers, logic and reason, and check the facts.

Next question?